Welcome to 2019 NFL free agency. I’m grading the most notable offseason moves — signings and trades — below, so come back throughout the month for updates as deals get completed.
Keep in mind that I’m not grading deals until we get a clearer picture of the money involved. So if you don’t see a grade for a deal that has been reported, check back in later.
Monday, March 11
The deal: Four years, $54 million with $27 million semi-guaranteed
The 49ers have a habit of making signings like this under general manager John Lynch. They fall in love with a player and pay him like the player they imagine him being as opposed to the player the rest of the market is negotiating against. These moves generally don’t work out. In 2017, it was Malcolm Smith and Kyle Juszczyk. Last year, it was Jerick McKinnon, who missed all of his debut season with the team because of a torn ACL.
The closest example of this for the 49ers in the draft was with now-departed inside linebacker Reuben Foster. After the 2017 draft, when the Niners traded down one spot with the Bears and drafted pass-rusher Solomon Thomas, Lynch traded back into the bottom of the first round to draft Foster. Afterward, Lynch suggested that Foster was the third-highest player on their draft board and that if the Bears had taken Thomas with the second overall pick, he would have chosen Foster third.
In the end, the rest of the league let Foster fall to 31, where the 49ers grabbed him for an ill-fated run at inside linebacker. The Niners cut Foster in November after multiple incidents of domestic abuse, and while the 49ers had some success with Fred Warner in the middle last season, it’s not a surprise that they wanted to go after a long-term solution at middle linebacker this offseason.
For a linebacker with one Pro Bowl appearance (as an injury replacement) coming off a torn ACL, though, this price tag has to be considered exorbitant. Alexander now has the largest annual average salary for any off-ball linebacker in the league at $13.5 million, although C.J. Mosley will likely top that figure when he signs a free-agent deal later this week. It’s difficult to believe the 49ers couldn’t have found similar production at a much cheaper cost, especially as veterans such as Zach Brown and Brandon Marshall are expected to hit the market.
It’s tough to judge Alexander’s production in Tampa, in part because the defense around him was so bad. He missed 18 games over his four seasons with injuries and a four-game PED suspension, and while that’s not ideal, it gives us a reasonable sample to see how the Bucs’ defense performed with and without him on the field.
The Bucs were unquestionably better with Alexander around, but they weren’t great in any scenario. Tampa’s run defense allowed 4.3 yards per carry and first downs on 25.3 percent of rushing attempts without Alexander on the field. With him around, the Bucs gave up 4.1 yards per carry and allowed 24.1 percent of rushing attempts to turn into first downs. The league averages over that time frame were for 4.2 yards per carry and a 22.5 percent first-down rate on running plays.
Alexander was similarly helpful against the pass, although again, it wasn’t enough to push Tampa into competency. The Bucs allowed a 108.3 passer rating and a 75.5 Total QBR with Alexander off the field, which is like turning every opposing offense into Drew Brees. With Alexander, their numbers were still not great, but certainly better: Tampa gave up a passer rating of 95.3 and a Total QBR of 62.9 with him on the field.
The evidence suggests Alexander is a good linebacker. The 49ers are paying him like he’s a threat to be a first-team All-Pro linebacker every season, and that just isn’t borne out by Alexander’s career. A torn ACL is hardly a death knell for careers in the modern NFL, but it wouldn’t be shocking if he got off to a slow start next season, given that he tore up his knee in October. The 49ers will likely have a team-friendly structure on this deal, and I suspect that Alexander’s $27 million in guarantees aren’t fully locked in at the time he signs his deal, but this deal is solving a problem most teams address for far less.
The deal: Four years, $66.8 million with $36.8 million guaranteed
Patriots coach Bill Belichick owes Brown a solid for filling in at left tackle when rookie first-round pick Isaiah Wynn went down with a torn Achilles. Brown promptly played through injuries and excelled en route to a Super Bowl title. Brown, in response, owes Belichick a few million dollars. A year ago, he was an injured right tackle whom the 49ers sent to the Patriots in the middle of the draft along with the 145th pick for the 95th selection.
Now, Brown has the highest average annual salary for an offensive lineman in NFL history at $16.7 million, topping the $16 million previous Patriots left tackle Nate Solder netted from the Giants a year ago. Belichick will do just fine; the Patriots will get back Wynn for 2019, and as CBS Sports’ Will Brinson noted on Twitter, the Patriots will likely net a compensatory pick in the 96-100 range for the privilege of renting Brown for one season. Belichick is good at this, huh?
The 25-year-old Brown, who makes other NFL players look like fans at 6-foot-8 and 380 pounds, was going to get paid. After Donovan Smith re-signed with the Bucs before free agency began, Brown was the only viable left tackle left on the market in a league in which 10 teams annually have left tackles who keep their offensive coordinator up praying at night. It’s a bit of a surprise to see him get a record deal after just one season playing left tackle, though, when you consider that the far more experienced Solder got a smaller deal and then didn’t impress in his debut season away from New England.
It’s even more surprising to see Brown head to Oakland, if only because the Raiders invested in tackles last offseason. In his first draft with the Raiders, Jon Gruden surprisingly used the 15th pick on fellow 6-foot-8 tackle Kolton Miller, who started all 16 games at left tackle. Then, with the first pick in the third round, Gruden drafted North Carolina A&T product Brandon Parker, who started 12 games and took over as the team’s right tackle.
Things didn’t go great. According to Stats LLC, Miller allowed 13 sacks, which is one of the largest numbers I can find for a tackle in recent memory by that company’s analysis. He also committed eight penalties, while Parker chipped in with 10 penalties and 8.5 sacks allowed. They looked the way rookie tackles typically look.
Now, the plan has changed. Brown’s salary dictates that the Raiders see him as their left tackle, given that the only right tackle in the league who makes more than $9.5 million per year is Lane Johnson, whose deal has him on an average annual salary at $11.3 million. That would seem to move Miller to the right side, where he spent his first two seasons at UCLA. You don’t typically want to draft right tackles in the middle of the first round, so this move indirectly caps how valuable Miller can theoretically be while also giving up on his development as a left tackle after one season. Parker, who didn’t win rave reviews from Raiders fans, will likely move to the bench as the team’s swing tackle.
One of the reasons those rookie tackles didn’t develop well is my biggest concern for Brown in Oakland. In New England, Brown’s positional coach was Dante Scarnecchia, who probably deserves to be in the Hall of Fame for what he has accomplished. (As ESPN’s Adam Schefter pointed out, Scarnecchia probably deserves a cut of this deal, too.) Scarnecchia is right up there with Bill Callahan of Washington among the best offensive line coaches in football.
Brown’s coach in Oakland is Tom Cable, who was a disaster during his time in Seattle with everyone from veteran additions to high draft picks to undrafted free agents. Cable might be one of the league’s worst offensive line coaches, to say nothing of his abhorrent off-field behavior in years past. Given that Brown took a big leap forward as a player once he hooked up with Scarnecchia in New England, it’s fair to wonder how he’ll look after a year or two of working with Cable in Oakland. The guy who excelled for the Patriots last season is worth this sort of money, but I’m not sure the Raiders have the coaching staff to coax that version of Brown out in Oakland and Las Vegas.
The deal: Three years, $30 million with $10 million guaranteed
The Eagles found their replacement for Tim Jernigan by signing Jackson, who went from making the Pro Bowl in 2017 to being benched in 2018 and eventually cut by the Jaguars this offseason. Jackson, who was a standout during Denver’s run to the Super Bowl in 2015, will hope to rekindle his level of play alongside Fletcher Cox in Philadelphia.
While Jackson is taking Jernigan’s salary slot and place on the roster, he might realistically also be part of the calculus in replacing Michael Bennett, who is an excellent interior pass-rusher. Jackson isn’t quite at Bennett’s level, but the 29-year-old has consistently been effective as a pro when allowed to penetrate and get after the quarterback. Cox is always going to be the focal point of those pressures, but if Jackson plays well, it will allow Cox to rest more often on passing downs than he did in 2018. Jackson produced more quarterback knockdowns in 2018 (12) than in his more celebrated 2017 season (11), but he was unluckier; the 11-knockdown season produced eight sacks, while the 12-knockdown campaign generated 3.5 sacks.
Jackson will need to keep up his strength as an interior defender in a division in which he’ll face the run-heavy attacks of the Cowboys and Giants and a Washington team with Brandon Scherff at right guard. The Jaguars got much better against the run after trading for Marcell Dareus during that 2017 campaign, and while Jackson isn’t a minus run defender, it’s the weaker element to his game of the two.
Realistically, there’s not a ton of risk here for the Eagles, who will likely be able to get out of this contract after one season if Jackson doesn’t pan out. With three top-60 picks, they can address their remaining points of relative weakness (running back, wideout, cornerback) in the draft. You would figure they don’t have much more to do in unrestricted free agency, but general manager Howie Roseman always seems to have a surprise for us.
The deal: One year, $4.5 million
It’s no surprise that a Lions organization run by ex-Patriots such as Matt Patricia and Bob Quinn would go after the longtime New England slot receiver, who was cut by the Dolphins last week. Amendola’s deal didn’t make sense for a Dolphins team that was cap-strapped and simultaneously gave Albert Wilson a longer deal, but the 33-year-old Amendola ended up staying relatively healthy and played 654 offensive snaps in Miami. That’s the most he has played in a single season over the course of his 10-year career, and the first time he has topped 600 snaps since the 2010 season, when he was still on the Rams.
The Lions do need help in the slot after trading Golden Tate to the Eagles last year. After the trade, Detroit’s leading slot receiver was Bruce Ellington, who caught 15 passes out of the slot despite not even being on the Lions roster until a couple of weeks after the Tate trade took place. Amendola should fit right into that role, and Detroit won’t need him to be an every-down wideout with Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones on the roster.
On the other hand, the fact that the Lions already are committed to Golladay and Jones means this is a lot to give a third wideout for a team with holes all over its defense. This is a market deep with slot receivers — Amendola, Adam Humphries, Cole Beasley and Jamison Crowder are all out there — and the slot is a position in which teams have typically been able to find useful contributors in the draft and even among undrafted free agents.
It’s tough to count on Amendola to stay healthy for any length of time, even given that he played 15 games in each of the past two seasons. After replacing offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter with Darrell Bevell, the Lions might not be in 11 personnel as frequently as they were a year ago. I can see why the Lions made this move, but it’s also a lot easier to envision a scenario in which it doesn’t go well than one in which it wildly exceeds expectations.
Sunday, March 10
Jets get: G Kelechi Osemele, 2019 sixth-round pick
Raiders get: 2019 fifth-round pick
Jets grade: B+
Raiders grade: C
The Raiders got to bask in the glory of winning the Antonio Brown trade for about 12 hours or so before making a curious decision by dealing Osemele to the Jets. For a team with no cap concerns even after trading for Brown and giving him a new deal, it’s surprising to see them move on from a Pro Bowl-caliber guard with no obvious replacement on the roster. Given the presence of Tom Cable as offensive line coach, expect the Raiders to replace Osemele with a basketball player or a defensive lineman. Jon Feliciano, who filled in at guard this season, is a free agent.
To be fair, the Raiders might point out that the Osemele, who was arguably the most physically dominant lineman in football in 2015 and 2016, hasn’t been the same over the past two seasons. In 2017, new Raiders offensive coordinator Todd Downing moved the team to a heavy dose of outside zone, playing against his line’s strengths. Last season, Osemele missed three games with a knee injury, played through a reaggravation of that injury, and then was out for two games in December with a toe ailment. He wasn’t 100 percent for most of the campaign, and per STATS, LLC data, he allowed four sacks in 11 games.
If the Raiders think Osemele’s injury issues are going to continue to be a problem, they probably wouldn’t be enthused to pay the two years and $21 million left on his deal. Enter the Jets, who have more than $100 million in cap space and a dismal offensive line. There’s very little risk here for general manager Mike Maccagnan, who is moving down about one round in the late rounds of the draft and adding a player with Pro Bowl upside and an unguaranteed contract. The Jets suddenly have one of the better guard duos in the league with Osemele and Brian Winters, although they probably still need to add a right tackle.
My only issue from New York’s perspective is figuring out their scheme. Adam Gase’s best offenses have come when his running game is built around the outside zone. Granted, those teams included Peyton Manning at quarterback in Denver, but his best stretch running the football in Miami was with Jay Ajayi running heavy doses of wide zone. Osemele can block that just fine if he’s healthy, but it’s like driving a bulldozer to the grocery store. The former Ravens standout is always going to look best as a mauler in more physical run schemes. New offensive line coach Frank Pollack spent years with the Cowboys under Bill Callahan before spending the 2018 season under former Gase assistant Bill Lazor in Cincinnati, where he installed plenty of outside zone looks for Joe Mixon.
Gase built an effective rushing attack around Frank Gore a year ago without relying as heavily upon outside zone, so it wouldn’t shock me if we saw the Jets running more duo after acquiring Osemele. In a thin market for guards, even if the Jets don’t play to Osemele’s strengths, they’ve still made a significant upgrade at one of the weakest positions on their roster.
Raiders get: WR Antonio Brown
Steelers get: 2019 third- and fifth-round picks
Raiders grade: A-
Steelers grade: C-
I had quite a bit to say about the AB trade, so read the full analysis here.
Saturday, March 9
The deal: Two years, $7 million
Generally, a rebuilding Dolphins team should be going after younger talent and avoiding free agency. This deal is an exception for a couple of reasons. One is that Allen was cut by the Patriots, so he won’t impact the draft pick compensation the Dolphins might be in line to receive if Ja’Wuan James and Cameron Wake sign elsewhere.
The other is that the Miami really isn’t paying that much for a block-first, low-end starting tight end, especially when you consider that the Ravens paid Nick Boyle nearly twice as much in terms of annual salary. Allen should be a bigger part of the passing game after catching just 13 passes over two seasons in New England, where new Dolphins coach Brian Flores and offensive coordinator Chad O’Shea saw him in practice on a daily basis. He’s also an excellent fit in terms of skill set alongside Mike Gesicki, who the team will hope breaks out as the team’s move tight end in his second season.
The deal: One year, $2.8 million with $1.6 million guaranteed
The Chiefs need a running back with Kareem Hunt and Spencer Ware no longer on the roster, and my guess is that Hyde will do just fine in Kansas City if the Chiefs turn to him in a limited role. At the same time, though, they have managed to rotate everyone from Hunt to Charcandrick West to Jamaal Charles to Damien Williams as their primary running back during the Andy Reid era without losing much efficiency. Hyde can succeed in Kansas City because just about everybody the team lines up — short of Knile Davis — does well.
I’m not sure the Chiefs need to devote nearly $3 million to Hyde to find a competent running back to either compete with Williams or take over as the primary back. I also understand that they might want to add a veteran to their backfield, but you would figure they would want someone with above-average receiving ability given how frequently Reid likes to throw to his backs. Hyde’s only year with significant receiving production was with Kyle Shanahan in 2017, but the former first-round pick was one of the least efficient receiving backs in football that season for San Francisco.
Both Williams and Hyde are likely to make the roster, and I would expect the Chiefs to go after a long-term solution like Damien Harris in the middle rounds of this year’s draft. Williams can play special teams, but Hyde didn’t take a single special-teams snap in either of his stops last season. As ESPN’s Matthew Berry pointed out on Twitter, the second back in Reid’s offense doesn’t typically have a big role from week to week. Hyde basically needs to make a significant difference as a rusher to justify his roster spot here, and given Kansas City’s incredible passing attack and excellent offensive line, they could plug in plenty of options to succeed in that role.
Friday, March 8
The deal: Two years, $12.5 million with $5.25 million guaranteed
With the Rams unlikely to re-sign free agent Lamarcus Joyner, their list of potential replacements at free safety was vast, especially after Tashaun Gipson hit the market earlier Friday. As a conference champion in a desirable city with cap space, the Rams are going to have the lead on signing just about any ring-chasing veteran who hits the market. It’s no surprise they ended up with Weddle, and he won’t be the last solid over-30 player to join their roster this offseason.
Off the field, Weddle makes plenty of sense for the Rams. General manager Les Snead established a habit of using his own draft picks to trade for talented players while recouping some of the missing selections by letting his own veterans leave in free agency for compensatory picks. The Rams could be in line for as many as four compensatory picks if Joyner, Ndamukong Suh, Rodger Saffold, and Dante Fowler Jr. sign elsewhere.
Since Weddle was released by the Ravens, the 34-year-old won’t count against the compensatory formula, so he can’t cancel out any of the picks the Rams might gain for their four free agents if they move on. As the elder statesman of the safety class, he was the guy most likely to take a short-term deal, and this contact probably represents a one-year pact with an unguaranteed second season. That’s ideal for the Rams, too.
On the field, it’s fair to say the Ravens thought Weddle wasn’t the player he was a couple of years ago, given that they turned down the option to pay him $6.5 million for 2019. It has to be concerning that Weddle failed to stuff the stat sheet the way he had in years past. The six-time Pro Bowler failed to force a takeaway for only the second time in his 11 seasons as a starter and defensed a mere three passes after racking up 21 defenses over the previous two years. The Ravens ranked second in DVOA on short throws but only 16th on deeper attempts, where you would figure Weddle might have had more of an impact.
At the same time, though, Weddle was a starting safety on the league’s third-best defense by DVOA, and it wasn’t as if he was an obvious weakness. Weddle still has excellent instincts, and on a unit with starting cornerbacks renowned for jumping routes or coming off their man to try to force an interception, he is a solid last line of defense. Don Martindale had a superb debut season as Ravens defensive coordinator in 2018, but Rams DC Wade Phillips seems to make just about every player he gets better. The last time Weddle failed to record a takeaway was during his final season with the Chargers, and he promptly picked off 10 passes for the Ravens over the next two years.
The only thing you might say is that the Rams would occasionally slide Joyner down into the slot and play him as a cornerback against wideouts, something they can’t really ask Weddle to do at this point of his career. There’s always a chance that he returns from the offseason and isn’t the same guy — remember that John Lynch made the Pro Bowl for the Broncos at 36 in 2007 and wasn’t able to make the Patriots’ roster or catch on anywhere else the following August — but it’s more likely that the Rams get solid, smart safety play in their backfield next season.
Patriots get: DE Michael Bennett, 2020 seventh-round pick
Eagles get: 2020 fifth-round pick
Patriots grade: A
Eagles grade: B-
It seemed almost inevitable that Bennett would eventually make his way to New England, and after Bill Belichick traded for one year of Martellus Bennett in 2016 and promptly won a Super Bowl, he’ll hope to do the same with the tight end’s older brother. To get a pass-rusher as talented and flexible as Bennett for what amounts to a swap of late-round picks in 2020 is a classic Belichick trade picking up a valuable player for what amounts to pennies on the dollar. This is Belichick’s 2019 equivalent of the Trent Brown trade, when he swapped a fourth-round pick for a fifth-rounder and ended up with a Super Bowl-winning left tackle.
Make no mistakes: Bennett is still an upper-echelon pass-rusher. He finished the 2018 season with nine sacks, 15 tackles for loss, and a whopping 30 quarterback knockdowns, with the latter coming fourth in the NFL. The 33-year-old has typically underperformed his knockdown totals as a pro, turning about 35 percent of his quarterback hits into sacks, but he is quite clearly still a disruptive defender.
Bennett is far more productive than players like Jadeveon Clowney and Olivier Vernon, and with unguaranteed base salaries of $6.2 million and $7 million over the next two seasons, he’ll make less than either of those guys will bring home in 2019 alone. He’s going to be a massive help for a Patriots team that looked perilously thin at defensive end with Trey Flowers probably leaving in free agency. Bennett is probably best as an interior rusher in passing situations, but I suspect we’ll see Belichick get creative to try and create one-on-one matchups for the Texas A&M product.
The only concern is whether Bennett will butt heads again with the ornery Greg Schiano, who wasn’t impressed with Bennett’s propensity for freelancing while he was coach in Tampa Bay. Schiano valued Bennett only as a nickel pass-rusher and let him leave for the Seahawks, where he promptly won a Super Bowl. With the former Ohio State defensive coordinator joining Belichick’s staff this year, Schiano will need to let bygones be bygones and build his pass rush around New England’s new star end.
This move was perhaps inevitable for the Eagles after they signed Brandon Graham to a three-year, $40 million deal. Philly has about $26 million in cap space after making a series of moves this offseason to clear out room, including trading Bennett, restructuring Lane Johnson‘s deal, adding an extra year to Jason Kelce‘s contract to reduce his 2019 cap number, and moving on from Tim Jernigan.
Philly was probably going to cut Bennett if general manager Howie Roseman couldn’t find a trade partner, so getting something when the alternative is nothing is nice, but the vaunted Eagles defensive line is thinner at the moment than it has been in years past. Jernigan and Bennett are gone, Haloti Ngata is unlikely to return (and wasn’t effective last season), and Chris Long still hasn’t indicated whether he intends to return in 2019. This is a good draft for defensive linemen, of course, and the Eagles should be able to restock with younger talent, but it’s tough to expect a rookie to come in and perform as well as Bennett has.
It’s difficult to judge this trade in a vacuum, in part because each team made a decision before this swap that I wouldn’t necessarily agree with. If you accept that the Browns decided to deal Zeitler and the Giants planned to trade Vernon, this swap makes a lot of sense for both parties. If you question the broader logic, though, I might not be as enthused.
From Cleveland’s perspective, general manager John Dorsey has broken up a line that was very impressive during the second half of the season for Baker Mayfield. Zeitler was one of the league’s highest-paid guards and had a $12.4 million cap hold for 2019, but he also was an excellent two-way interior lineman who hadn’t missed a game in four years. The former Bengals standout did commit a career-high six penalties last season, but ask Cincinnati fans how much they miss the duo of Zeitler and Andrew Whitworth since they left in the spring of 2017. The Bengals’ offense has ground to a halt thanks to offensive line woes (and injuries) over the past two seasons.
Now, suddenly, Mayfield’s line is a major question mark. Starting left tackle Greg Robinson, whose deal is farther down in this file, has an addiction to holding penalties. The Browns will unquestionably replace Zeitler with 2018 second-rounder Austin Corbett, who played 14 offensive snaps as a rookie. Could Corbett turn out to be a useful player? Of course. Is it worth trading away an excellent guard to find out? It seems like a risky proposition, especially given that the Browns hardly need cap space. The idea of having Corbett as depth for the inevitable offensive line injuries every team deals with during a season seems more appealing than moving an upper-echelon lineman to get him into the lineup.
Cleveland did need to add a second pass-rusher to pair with Myles Garrett, and trading for Vernon allows the former Dolphins standout to move back into a 4-3 base defense under new defensive coordinator Steve Wilks. Vernon hasn’t racked up gaudy sack numbers during his career, but his knockdown totals have made him a bit of an analytics darling, including the 36-hit season in 2015 that helped get him a five-year, $85 million deal in free agency.
The 28-year-old Vernon went through a lost half-season in 2018 after suffering a high ankle sprain, which has sunk pass-rushers like Ezekiel Ansah for months at a time in years past. He seemed like an obvious cap casualty at the halfway point of the season, but Vernon played like a superstar over the final six weeks of the season. The new Browns end generated six sacks and 15 knockdowns over the final six weeks, with the latter mark ranking fourth in the NFL in that span.
If Cleveland gets that sort of production out of Vernon, they’ll win this deal. I wouldn’t quite count on that, but a healthy Vernon will see one-on-one matchups across from Garrett and should be good for a sack every other week, which makes him an above-average edge rusher. He’s not really a consistently stout run defender, which could hurt a Browns team that ranked 25th in the league in run defense DVOA last season, but Vernon isn’t a liability in that role, either. His arrival also moves Emmanuel Ogbah into a rotational role as the third defensive end, which is probably a better fit for his level of ability. The Browns might rue moving on from Carl Nassib, who looked a lot better in Tampa than he did in Cleveland, but their defensive line will be better once this trade is confirmed.
The issue here, though, is that we’re entering an offseason where the draft is full of edge-rushing talent. Even after the franchise tag picked off a handful of talented defensive ends, there are going to be plenty of options available to teams who want to add pass-rushers. Is Vernon at a base salary of $15.5 million better than adding, say, Michael Bennett (who is reportedly on the trade/release block) and Terrell Suggs for the same price? Would the Browns have been better off trading for Justin Houston, who wouldn’t have cost anywhere near as much in terms of compensation? I understand wanting to add an edge rusher, and Vernon is a good one, but I’m not sure I would have wanted to trade Zeitler to get one in this market.
It should be no surprise, on the other hand, that Giants GM Dave Gettleman made a move for an offensive lineman. There aren’t any plug-and-play starters in free agency at guard besides Rodger Saffold, and if the Giants didn’t think they were going to get the Rams standout, pivoting to Zeitler makes a lot of sense. The cap is a far more pressing concern for Big Blue, and Zeitler’s $10 million base salary might prevent them from paying a similar amount to former Gettleman draftee Daryl Williams to come play right tackle, but Zeitler fills in a spot that was occupied by Patrick Omameh and Jamon Brown last season.
It’s a major upgrade, and while Gettleman’s plan to construct a 1970s-era offense around the running game while paying Eli Manning more than 12 percent of his salary cap is brutally flawed, building around a great offensive line is reasonable enough. I’m not sure the Giants get there by adding Zeitler, especially given how badly Nate Solder regressed in New York last season, but they’re a much more talented line with Zeitler than without him.
On the other hand, a defense that wasn’t exactly crammed with pass-rushing talent just lost its best edge defender. After Vernon, the team’s most productive pass-rushers were defensive tackle B.J. Hill and second-year linebacker Lorenzo Carter, who is now penciled in to take over as one of the starting outside linebackers in James Bettcher’s defense. The Giants ranked 31st in adjusted sack rate last season, and they just traded away the only thing protecting them from the 32nd-ranked Raiders.
The good news for the Giants is what I mentioned earlier: They should be able to find pass-rushing help, either in free agency or with one of their draft picks. If the Kyler Murray rumors turn out to be true, they could suddenly be in great shape with the sixth pick. The names who keep popping up at the top of the draft include two quarterbacks (Murray and Dwayne Haskins), a dominant defensive tackle (Quinnen Williams), and three edge rushers (Nick Bosa, Josh Allen and Montez Sweat). Todd McShay’s most recent mock draft has offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor and edge rusher Rashan Gary coming off of the board at seven and eight after the Giants pick, too.
The Giants need players at all those positions, which means that they should be in a great spot to add their quarterback of the future, an impact defensive lineman or a right tackle at six. They had to trade down one round in the middle of the draft to get this done, which is a slight demerit, but they added a great player at a position of need by giving up a player at a position where there will be options this offseason. It’s easier to make sense of their side on this one.
Cardinals get: OT Marcus Gilbert
Steelers get: 2019 sixth-round pick
Cardinals grade: B+
Steelers grade: C+
This trade will likely be for the Cardinals’ compensatory pick, which comes in at No. 207. The Steelers once drafted the immaculately named Cap Boso with the 207th pick, but given that they were likely to release Gilbert if a trade partner didn’t arise, this is essentially a salary dump. Matt Feiler, who started nine games at right tackle a year ago, will likely compete with 2018 third-rounder Chukwuma Okorafor for the starting job in camp for a Steelers team that lost legendary offensive line coach Mike Munchak to the Broncos this offseason.
The Cardinals badly needed offensive line help at just about every spot, and while Justin Pugh might have been able to kick out and play right tackle, Arizona will pencil in Gilbert as its starting right tackle for Week 1. The Cards won’t be using a pen here for injury reasons, as Gilbert has missed 23 games over the past four seasons thanks to a suspension and injuries to his knee, ankle and hamstring. Gilbert will make $4.9 million in the final year of his contract, which is a risk worth taking for Arizona.
Thursday, March 7
Washington gets: QB Case Keenum (on a restructured deal), 2020 seventh-round pick
Broncos get: 2020 sixth-round pick
Washington grade: C
Broncos grade: C+
Denver general manager John Elway had little leverage with Keenum after trading for Joe Flacco last month. The Broncos already had guaranteed $7 million of Keenum’s $18 million base salary in 2019, and while no team was going to take on that extra $11 million in a trade, moving on from their 2018 starter would have reduced Denver’s liability this upcoming season.
By trading Keenum in lieu of releasing him, the Broncos will realize a small cash savings. The offsets on Keenum’s deal mean the team would only have realized a financial or cap savings if another team was willing to offer the 31-year-old more than $7 million for 2019, which seems unlikely. If we assume no team was willing to make that sort of offer, teams would instead just offer the minimum and allow the Broncos to assume the majority of the money owed Keenum, who would get the same amount of cash in his pocket either way. The veteran minimum for Keenum would have been $800,000 or so, meaning the Broncos would have been on the hook for $6.2 million if they had released Keenum.
Instead, with Keenum’s blessing, the Broncos restructured his deal and paid their incumbent $500,000 to forgo the $11 million in unguaranteed money for 2019. The Broncos will be on the hook for that $500,000 and $3.5 million of Keenum’s $7 million base salary, while Washington will take on the other $3.5 million. The pick swap of a sixth-round pick for a seventh-rounder in 2020 is of little consequence. The Broncos were getting rid of Keenum either way; making this move saves them about $2.2 million.
It’s a more curious move for Washington, who theoretically could have waited for the Broncos to cut Keenum and picked him up in the free-agent market for the minimum. Instead, it paid a premium of $2.7 million or so to acquire Keenum now, which suggests it was worried somebody else was going to beat it to the punch and trade for Keenum, or that Keenum would have a more attractive suitor in unrestricted free agency.
I’m not sure there was one, if only because Washington represents Keenum’s best chance at a starting job. If Nick Foles goes to Jacksonville as expected when free agency begins, well, there just aren’t going to be any starting jobs open. Every other team either has a veteran incumbent or a young player they’re committed to starting, and that’s before we figure out where draft picks Kyler Murray (Oklahoma) and Dwayne Haskins (Ohio State) are going to end up.
It’s possible that a team such as the Dolphins or Giants could cut their starting quarterback and go for Keenum as a bridge option, but this was the best opportunity left as the market currently stands, which is why Keenum was willing to forgo the open market and take that $10.5 million pay cut to go to Washington.
Washington fans might not be particularly excited about the idea of heading into 2019 with Keenum and Colt McCoy as their options at starting quarterback, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Jay Gruden & Co. made another move at the position. They don’t have the cap space to add anyone with a significant salary, but I wouldn’t count out a move up for someone like Haskins if Gruden thinks he’s a franchise passer. Second-tier passers such as Drew Lock (Missouri) and Daniel Jones (Duke) also could be in the discussion. If Washington drafts a passer in one of the first two rounds in April, Keenum and McCoy could be competing for a roster spot as opposed to the starting quarterback’s job.
Keenum isn’t going to excite a frustrated Washington fan base, but he does raise the floor for a Washington team that was 6-3 last season before Alex Smith broke his leg. McCoy made it through only one start before fracturing his fibula against the Eagles, which ended up forcing Washington to turn to replacement-level options Mark Sanchez and Josh Johnson over the remainder of the season. Keenum isn’t going to be the passer we saw in 2017, but he’s also not a replacement-level quarterback. Sixteen games from Keenum and McCoy should be better than 16 games from McCoy, Sanchez and Johnson.
The deal: Three years, $18 million
This is a curious move for a Ravens team that just invested first- (Hayden Hurst) and third-round picks (Mark Andrews) at tight end last year. Andrews was more productive in Year 1, racking up more receiving yards (552) than Boyle (213) and Hurst (163) combined. It feels like he has earned a starting role in the lineup as the move to tight end.
With Boyle now getting $6 million per season, that suddenly seems to leave Hurst as the odd man out, which doesn’t make sense. The former Pirates minor-leaguer was an over-aged draftee and will turn 26 in August, so the Ravens can’t exactly stash Hurst and wait for him to develop. Hurst underwent foot surgery in August and had a screw in his foot for the entire 2018 season. John Harbaugh said he was expecting big things from both his young tight ends at the combine.
Boyle fits in as the best run blocker of the three, which is going to matter in an offense built around Lamar Jackson. His role didn’t markedly increase once Jackson entered the lineup, though; he played just less than 54 percent of the offensive snaps with Joe Flacco at quarterback and a little more than 56 percent of the snaps with the rookie under center.
Over that time frame, the Ravens came out with three or more tight ends on 15.5 percent of their snaps, the third-highest rate in the league, but they weren’t very effective on those plays. Baltimore cost itself an average of 0.3 expected points per snap with three tight ends once Jackson took over, the fifth-worst offensive rate in the league.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter pointed out on Twitter that Boyle was in high demand from other teams as a blocking tight end. He’s a useful player. Blocking tight ends typically don’t get this sort of money, though, and there are other players in the market — Michael Hoomanawanui comes to mind — who offer above-average blocking ability at what will likely be a fraction of the cost. It’s difficult to see how the Ravens are going to parse out snaps at tight end in a way that would make the investments they’ve made at this position over the past 12 months make sense.
Tuesday, March 5
The deal: Three years, $41.3 million with $27 million guaranteed
Smith might have become the most anonymous member of the NFL’s eight-digit club, as Tampa Bay avoided a possible franchise tag by signing their 2015 second-round pick. Given how Tampa structures its contracts, we can say pretty confidently this is a two-year guaranteed pact with a team option for 2021. Given that the franchise tag would have cost Tampa $14.1 million, the team is getting a slight discount by guaranteeing Smith a second season in that same ballpark.
Does Smith belong alongside players such as Trent Williams and Russell Okung, whose extensions all have a similar average annual salary? Depends on what you value. Smith hasn’t looked like a dominant left tackle, but on an offense that has been wildly inconsistent, he has been stable.
According to STATS LLC tracking, Smith has given up either five or 5.5 sacks in three of his four seasons as a pro, with a zero-sack campaign in 2016 as the lone exception. Smith committed 13 penalties that season, but he has brought down that total to eight in 2017 and six last season. His best asset might simply be availability: Smith has played 4,142 of Tampa’s 4,171 offensive snaps since being drafted in 2015.
He doesn’t turn 26 until June, and in a league in which teams are starving for competent offensive line play, a young, league-average left tackle was going to get paid if he hit the free market. This deal allows Smith to avoid the franchise tag before hitting the free-agent market again at age 29, which is a nice win for the Penn State product. Tampa gets security on its quarterback’s blindside for two years, regardless of whether it sticks with Jameis Winston after 2019 or replaces him with a new passer. Both parties can feel like they won a bit here.
The deal: Two years, $9 million
Through the first quarter of the 2018 season, it looked like the 31-year-old Hunt was embarking on a stunning career season for the Colts. The Estonian racked up four sacks and nine tackles for loss through the first four weeks of the season, at which point he missed a game with a knee injury. After the Colts returned from their Week 6 bye, Hunt stopped stuffing the scoresheet, with the Bengals draftee picking up just one sack and four tackles for loss over the final nine games of the season.
Given that Hunt had shown no propensity for morphing into the Eastern European J.J. Watt at any point in his career before or after September 2018, it’s fair to suggest that the hottest month of his life was probably an outlier. You can understand why the Colts would want to bring Hunt back for another year as part of their defensive line rotation, but in a draft flush with defensive line talent, it’s fair to wonder whether Indy should have looked for a longer-term solution. Hunt’s $9 million deal isn’t going to break the bank for a team with more than $100 million in cap space, but it’s also giving snaps to a player who isn’t likely to be a difference-maker.
Friday, March 1
The deal: Three years, $40 million
For the second straight offseason, the Eagles have managed to keep a key defender who looked sure to leave town. It was linebacker Nigel Bradham last year. When a huge market didn’t develop for the former Bills linebacker, Philly swooped in and re-signed Bradham to a five-year, $40 million deal. Bradham’s deal was more realistically a one-year, $5.9 million pact with a series of team options, but general manager Howie Roseman found a way to retain a key part of Jim Schwartz’s defense.
It’s even more impressive that they’ve managed to keep around Graham, who comes at a much larger price. The former first-round pick signed a three-year, $40 million deal, a comfortable raise on the four-year, $26 million pact he signed before the 2015 season. Keeping Graham around ensures that the Eagles can build their defensive end rotation around the Michigan product, Michael Bennett, and 2017 first-rounder Derek Barnett, with Chris Long‘s future still unclear.
The difference between these two pacts is that Bradham’s contract came days into the free agent negotiating period, when the Eagles had a good idea of who they were and were not going to be able to keep. Graham’s contract comes two weeks before free agency, and by making this move now, the Eagles are probably going to be forced to make moves to create more cap room for their defensive end. Tim Jernigan has already been released. Nelson Agholor is at risk.
As for Graham, this deal might represent an overpay. The 30-year-old was long underrated around the league, including by this very organization, which only pushed him into the starting lineup on a regular basis during his sixth season in the league. He is a stout run defender on the edge, but he hasn’t been the sort of pass-rusher who would typically come away with this sort of contract. Over his four years as a starter, Graham has averaged 6.4 sacks and 14.3 knockdowns per season, which is right in line with guys such as Preston Smith and Clay Matthews, who probably aren’t getting this sort of deal in free agency.
Eagles fans might rightfully point out that Graham is part of a rotation that might prevent him from racking up better numbers, and there’s some truth to that. He has played 68.6 percent of Philadelphia’s snaps over the past two seasons. It’s also an issue, though, when you’re paying a player who isn’t on the field every down the sort of money he is getting from the Eagles on this deal. Graham would have found a contract like on this on the free market, but it might not be the right deal for the Eagles given how they use defensive ends and their needs elsewhere on the roster.
Monday, Feb. 25
The deal: One year, $7 million
On its face, you might see a great deal here. Robinson, who hadn’t lived up to expectations since being drafted with the second overall pick by the Rams in 2014, unquestionably had the best half-season of his career with the Browns. After undrafted rookie Desmond Harrison struggled and missed the Week 9 game against the Chiefs with an illness, Robinson took over at left tackle and stabilized the weakest point on Cleveland’s line. According to Stats LLC tracking, Robinson didn’t allow a single sack across eight starts and 463 offensive snaps. That’s exciting.
The problem, on the other hand, is that Robinson kept seeing yellow. He wasn’t flagged in his debut start against the Chiefs, but the Auburn product was penalized 10 times over the final seven games of the season. Does that sound like a lot? It’s a lot.
To put that in context, nobody else in the NFL had more penalties from Weeks 10-17 than Robinson. Over that time period, Robinson committed nine holding penalties and nobody else in the league picked up more than five. On a per-snap basis over the entire season, Robinson was the most-penalized offensive player in football with 400 snaps from scrimmage or more, racking up penalties once every 46.3 snaps. The second-most penalized offensive player was Harrison.
I wonder if the Browns are setting the bar a little low here. Yes, Robinson is better than Harrison. It’s true that you would generally rather take a holding penalty than a sack, since a hold at least allows you to replay the down, but that doesn’t make a hold a meaningless play. One of Robinson’s holding calls wiped away a 76-yard touchdown pass to Antonio Callaway. Another took a 35-yard Nick Chubb run off of the books. The bar for left tackles is high, but nobody in the modern NFL has been able to sustain a steady run of success at tackle while averaging what amounts to more than one holding penalty per week.
Could the holding penalties regress toward the mean? It’s possible, but I wouldn’t hold out much significant hope. Robinson racked up a league-high 31 holding calls from 2014-17, 10 more than any other offensive lineman, despite playing only 51 games. He was penalized once every 60 offensive snaps, which is a little better than his rate in 2018, but not by much.
On the other hand, again per STATS LLC tracking, Robinson allowed 23 sacks over that same four-year span. You would also count on that to regress toward the mean in 2019, too, and if Robinson doesn’t simultaneously cut his penalties way below his career rate, he’s a problem, not a solution.
Compounding all of this is that the Browns are reportedly paying Robinson a base salary of $7 million in 2019. The money isn’t critical to the Browns, given that they entered the offseason with more than $75 million in cap space, but the opportunity cost is. Relying on Robinson as their left tackle without pursuing a better long-term option is likely to slow the franchise’s development. Unless he takes a huge step forward and starts avoiding penalties, the Browns are going to be back in the market for a left tackle next offseason. Bringing back Robinson as a swing tackle and an option is one thing, but passing on a tackle who would have solved their problems in this year’s draft in order to go for another go-round with Robinson is a step backward.
If Robinson does take that step forward, this contract doesn’t offer the Browns any protection. A one-year deal means Robinson would be allowed to hit the market next offseason or require a lucrative franchise tag to stick around in Cleveland. If the Browns really thought he was their guy on the blindside, general manager John Dorsey needed to get extra unguaranteed years onto this deal to give the team the flexibility to keep Robinson around if he does have that breakout season. Instead, Robinson is a short-term stopgap being paid a premium in the hopes he turns into a long-term solution. There’s not much available on the market at left tackle, but this deal didn’t solve much for Cleveland.
Thursday, Feb. 7
The deal: Three years, $22.5 million with $9 million guaranteed
The Cardinals made a series of signings before the free-agent period began. While adding Charles Clay and Brooks Reed on one-year deals were relatively low-risk acquisitions, Cardinals general manager Steve Keim took a much bigger swing at corner to try to find a partner for Patrick Peterson. With a thin cornerback market waiting in free agency, Arizona might have rationalized to itself that it needed to act immediately by adding Alford.
The problem, though, is that Alford was one of the worst starting cornerbacks in the NFL last season. He allowed eight touchdowns as Atlanta’s primary defender in coverage, on plays both short and long. The Falcons gave up 11 pass plays of 35 yards or more and Alford was in coverage on six of them, including four in one game against the Giants, who weren’t exactly the Greatest Show on Turf. Those four plays alone amounted to 200 passing yards for Eli Manning. Alford had holding penalties declined on two of those four catches and was flagged 12 times during the season, the seventh-highest total in the league.
Undersized corners tend to not age well, and with Alford turning 30 in November, it’s tough to count on much of a resurgence. The Cardinals clearly expect one, giving that they’re paying Alford $9 million for the 2019 season, with $13.5 million in unguaranteed salaries in 2020 and 2021 waiting if he returns to form. The Cards needed cornerback help, but after signing Alford, they might still need it, too.