FA Cup fourth-round predictions: Lawro v Man Like Mobeen star Tolu Ogunmefun

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Liverpool’s unbeaten Premier League record is still intact after Thursday’s win at Wolves, but will they survive an FA Cup trip to League One Shrewsbury unscathed?

The Reds’ trip to Shrewsbury (Sunday, 17:00 GMT) is one of three fourth-round ties you can watch live on the BBC this weekend.

BBC Sport’s football expert Mark Lawrenson has taken a look at all 16 of this weekend’s ties and given his verdict on who will make it into round five.

For selected matches, including Shrewsbury against Liverpool and the BBC’s other two televised games – Brentford v Leicester (Saturday, 12:30) and Manchester City against Fulham (Sunday, 13:00) – Man Like Mobeen star Tolu Ogunmefun has made his predictions too.

Tolu, who is also a stand-up comedian, plays Nate in the critically acclaimed Birmingham-set BBC Three comedy-drama.

All eight episodes of series three of Man Like Mobeen are available to watch on iPlayer from Sunday.

Man Like Mobeen follows the lives of Mobeen (right) and his friends Nate (played by Tolu, left) and Eight as they look to stay out of trouble in Small Heath

Tolu is an Arsenal fan and says the main reasons he grew up as a Gunner were his dad – and David Seaman.

He told BBC Sport: “I grew up in Hackney and my dad supported them. When I was very young, I remember watching David Seaman make a spectacular save in his green jersey and I asked my dad for that jersey.

“From that day forward, I was in love with Arsenal.

“When I was growing up, Thierry Henry was my hero. He was such a special player.

“My favourite moment as an Arsenal fan was him coming back to us on loan in 2012 and scoring against Leeds in the FA Cup with his legendary finesse, and with that shot right into the bottom-right corner.

Commentary – Thierry Henry scores on Arsenal return

“My best FA Cup memory was down to another one of my top Arsenal players, Aaron Ramsey, who scored the winner against Hull in the 2014 final when we came back from 2-0 down to win 3-2.

“I was heartbroken when Ramsey left – I had to un-follow him on Instagram, and then re-follow him again a bit later – but it has been painful to see a lot of our star players leave to be honest.

“I think the good times are on their way back now though, under Mikel Arteta.

“We’ve got someone in charge that understands the team a bit more, and think if he has some help from the board to get some extra players in, then we will be heading in a better direction soon.”

FA Cup fourth-round ties
Gap Result Lawro
FRIDAY
Northampton v Derby 37 x-x 1-1*
QPR v Sheff Wed 4 x-x 2-0
SATURDAY
Brentford v Leicester 22 x-x 2-1
Burnley v Norwich 7 x-x 2-0
Coventry v Birmingham 10 x-x 1-1*
Millwall v Sheff Utd 20 x-x 0-2
Newcastle v Oxford Utd 35 x-x 2-0
Portsmouth v Barnsley 9 x-x 1-0
Reading v Cardiff 2 x-x 1-1*
Southampton v Tottenham 3 x-x 2-1
West Ham v West Brom 4 x-x 2-1
Hull City v Chelsea 28 x-x 0-2
SUNDAY
Man City v Fulham 21 x-x 3-0
Tranmere v Man Utd 60 x-x 0-2
Shrewsbury v Liverpool 59 x-x 0-2
MONDAY
Bournemouth v Arsenal 8 x-x 2-0

Gap = how many league positions separate each team

* Away team to win at home in the replay

LAWRO’S FA CUP FOURTH-ROUND PREDICTIONS

All kick-offs 15:00 GMT unless otherwise stated.

Key:
PL = Premier League C = Championship
L1 = League One L2 = League Two
H = Home A = away
r = required a replay

FRIDAY

Northampton v Derby County (20:00 GMT)

League Two (6th) v Championship (16th)
Who did they beat?
3R: Burton (L1) A 3R: Crystal Palace (PL) A
2R: Notts County (NL) H
1R: Chippenham (NL) A

Off the pitch, Derby are waiting to find out what happens next after being charged for a breach of the English Football League’s spending rules.

On it, the Rams have actually had an upturn in form and are now unbeaten in six games, but their results on the road remain a concern.

Phillip Cocu’s side beat Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park in round three but they have still not won away in the Championship since the opening weekend of the season.

FA Cup: Crystal Palace 0-1 Derby County highlights

I backed Northampton to win at Burton in round three and it is great to see them in the fourth round for the first time since 2004 – when they went out to Manchester Untied.

The Cobblers have not met a Premier League giant yet this time, but they are the lowest ranked side left in the FA Cup and they have still made some decent money out of their run in the competition this season – around £600,000 in total, including a £250,000 bonus for being the last League Two side left – which is massive for them.

They are in good form in League Two, especially at home where they have not been beaten since the start of October, and I don’t think their adventure is over just yet – Derby will have to take them back to Pride Park to win it.

Lawro’s prediction: 1-1 – Derby to win the replay

QPR V Sheff Wed (20:00 GMT)

Championship (14th) v Championship (10th)
Who did they beat?
3R: Swansea (C) H 3R: Brighton (PL) A

When you get into the FA Cup fourth round as a Championship club you always want a Premier League team next – especially Sheffield Wednesday, who have already beaten a top-flight team in round three.

FA Cup: Brighton & Hove Albion 0-1 Sheffield Wednesday highlights

So, this won’t have been a draw either team wanted, although both of them will still have promotion aspirations too – they might be in mid-table but, the way that division is, neither of them are out of that race yet.

Both teams have been up and down form-wise, which is why they are where they are in the table, but with home advantage I’d back QPR to get through.

Lawro’s prediction: 2-0

SATURDAY

Brentford v Leicester (12:45 GMT)

Championship (5th) v Premier League (3rd)
Who did they beat?
3R: Stoke (C) H 3R: Wigan (C) H

Leicester hope the injury that Jamie Vardy picked up against West Ham on Wednesday is not serious, but I doubt he would have featured in this game anyway.

Leicester showed real authority and personality – Rodgers

I expect Foxes boss Brendan Rodgers will be focused on securing a top-four place and Champions League football rather than the FA Cup and, if he does put out a weakened side, this tie is going to be very tough for them.

Brentford have got a goalscorer in Ollie Watkins, and some good players. They are quite creative – they play a 4-3-3 and the front three are all decent, so they are a dangerous side.

Lawro’s prediction: 2-1

Tolu’s prediction: Leicester will be too good, even without Vardy. 0-3

Burnley v Norwich

Premier League (13th) v Premier League (20th)
Who did they beat?
3R: Peterborough (L1) H 3R: Preston (C) A

Two games for Burnley, two wins – and against Leicester and Man Utd too. It has been a very good week for them.

It has been a difficult few weeks for Clarets boss Sean Dyche but I think he might fancy a bit of an FA Cup run now they have climbed out of immediate danger in the league.

FA Cup: Preston North End 2-4 Norwich City highlights

I was at Preston to see Norwich win in the last round, but they seriously changed their team around for that tie, and I cannot believe that Canaries boss Daniel Farke won’t do that again.

Lawro’s prediction: 2-0

Coventry City v Birmingham City

League One (4th) v Championship (18th)
Who did they beat?
3R: Bristol Rovers (L1) Hr 3R: Blackburn (C) H
2R: Ipswich (L1) Ar
1R: Colchester (L2) A

Coventry are going well in League One and seem to like St Andrews more than their landlords Birmingham do, because they have only lost once there all season.

Any replay will be at the same stadium, so you know what’s going to happen, don’t you?

Lawro’s prediction: 1-1 – Birmingham to win the replay (at St Andrews again)

Tolu’s prediction: This is a big derby game, and obviously Birmingham will feel at home. 0-3

Millwall v Sheff Utd

Championship (8th) v Premier League (8th)
Who did they beat?
3R: Newport County (L2) H 3R: Fylde (NL) H

Millwall have built a bit of momentum up of late, and are unbeaten in six games.

Normally, you would think Sheffield United would seriously change their side for the FA Cup, but maybe their league position means Chris Wilder can go for this a bit more – a cup run would be an icing on the cake for a great season for the Blades.

Lawro’s prediction: 0-2

Newcastle Utd v Oxford Utd

Premier League (14th) v League One (5th)
Who did they beat?
3R: Rochdale (L1) Hr 3R: Hartlepool (NL) H
2R: Walsall (L2) A
1R: Hayes & Yeading (NL) A

The way Newcastle have pinched points so late on in their last two league games will have been devastating for their opponents but it shows the belief and spirit the Magpies have got, which is great.

Steve Bruce praises Magpies’ fighting spirit in ‘remarkable’ game

Newcastle surely won’t need to leave it to the death to get a result in this tie, though.

Oxford are still at the top end of League One but their form has dropped off a little bit and they are still waiting for their first league win of 2020.

FA Cup: Newcastle United 4-1 Rochdale highlights

Newcastle needed a replay to get past Rochdale in round three, but they should get the job done at St James’ Park, and before you know it they could be on a cup run.

Lawro’s prediction: 2-0

Portsmouth v Barnsley

League One (7th) v Championship (22nd)
Who did they beat?
3R: Fleetwood (L1) A 3R: Crewe (L2) A
2R: Altrincham (NL) H
1R: Harrogate (NL) A

Portsmouth are unbeaten at home in League One this season and Barnsley have only won once away in the Championship – so you probably know where I am going with this.

My team, Preston, beat the Tykes 3-0 on Wednesday night and they are in a bit of bother at the bottom of the table, and not playing particularly well.

Yes, you could argue that promotion should be the priority for Pompey, and it probably is.

But if they get into round five and get a big draw, there might be some money there, even if it just for wages for a loan signing, that could make a difference between them going up or not – so why not go all out to win this tie?

Lawro’s prediction: 1-0

Reading v Cardiff City

Championship (15th) v Championship (13th)
Who did they beat?
3R: Blackpool (L1) Ar 3R: Carlisle (L2) Ar

Reading are in good form at the moment and they looked decent when I saw them beat Preston at Deepdale at the turn of the year.

Highlights: Carlisle United 3-4 Cardiff City

Cardiff, who scraped past Carlisle in a thrilling replay to get here, are not great not on the road but seem to draw a lot of games.

These two sides meet again in the Championship next week, so put all that together and you just know this tie will go to a replay too – they will be sick of the sight of each other by then, too.

Lawro’s prediction: 1-1 – Cardiff to win the replay

Southampton v Tottenham

Premier League (9th) v Premier League (6th)
Who did they beat?
3R: Huddersfield (C) H 3R: Middlesbrough (C) Hr

Southampton are on the up and their form is so good they are now only three points behind Tottenham in the Premier League, and also three points off fifth place.

That tells you how much Saints have picked up, and they have been winning games by playing extremely well, not by being jammy.

Hasenhuttl praises Saints’ ‘behaviour and belief’

Southampton boss Ralph Hasenhuttl was willing to take the blame when his side lost 9-0 at home to Leicester in October, so I think he deserves the credit for turning things around, and with the same group of players.

I’d back Hasenhttl again here, too. Saints beat Tottenham when they met at St Mary’s in the league on New Year’s Day, and I can see this tie having the same outcome.

Jose Mourinho was supposedly meant to be delivering trophies when he arrived as Tottenham manager in November but their situation means the top four, and Champions League football, is what they really need.

Lawro’s prediction: 2-1

Tolu’s prediction: I am so anti-Spurs – and this is a tough one for them, especially without Harry Kane, because they are having a difficult spell at the moment and struggling for goals. I am going to say Saints win. 2-0

West Ham v West Brom

Premier League (17th) v Championship (1st)
Who did they beat?
3R: Gillingham (C) A 3R: Charlton (C) A

West Brom have hit the buffers in a big way in the Championship and have not won in the league since 14 December. They are only still top because Leeds have done something similar.

From what Baggies boss – and former West Ham manager – Slaven Bilic has been saying about their fixture list and fatigue, it does not sound like they particularly want an FA Cup run.

You could say the same about West Ham, especially when you look at the important games they have got coming up.

So I am expecting both teams to make a lot of changes, and for West Ham to edge it.

Lawro’s prediction: 2-1

Hull City v Chelsea (17:30 GMT)

Championship (12th) v Premier League (4th)
Who did they beat?
3R: Rotherham (L1) A 3R: Nott’m Forest (C) H

I’ve been impressed by Hull, and Jarrod Bowen is a real threat for the Tigers up front.

Chelsea should never have dropped points against Arsenal on Tuesday after going 2-1 up with six minutes left, against 10 men.

Chelsea do not have killer instinct – Lampard

The Blues are a bit fragile at times but they should still have enough to get through this tie, even though Hull will have a real go at them.

The game is a sell-out so there will be a great atmosphere at the KCOM Stadium, but I’d still back Chelsea.

Lawro’s prediction: 0-2

Tolu’s prediction: This is tricky… I will give that to Chelsea, just. 1-2

SUNDAY

Man City v Fulham (13:00 GMT)

Premier League (2nd) v Championship (3rd)
Who did they beat?
3R: Port Vale (L2) H 3R: Aston Villa (PL) H

Fulham scored a couple of wonder-goals to beat Aston Villa in round three, and are in good shape at the top end of the Championship too.

FA Cup: Fulham 2-1 Aston Villa highlights

But you know that Manchester City will put out a strong line-up as they continue their defence of the FA Cup, and it is hard to see Fulham getting close to them at Etihad Stadium.

Lawro’s prediction: 3-0

Tolu’s prediction: It depends who plays of course, but City have got so many players who can win a game for them. 3-1

Tranmere v Man Utd

League One (21st) v Premier League (5th)
Who did they beat?
3R: Watford (PL) Hr 3R: Wolves (PL) Hr
2R: Chichester City (NL) H
1R: Wycombe (L1) Ar

Tranmere’s pitch at Prenton Park is horrendous, and they have done brilliantly to get this far, but I still think United will win. They have to, don’t they?

Solskjaer won’t last beyond this season – Martin Keown

With the way things are going for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, he badly needs to stay in this competition.

The issue is not just the fact his side are losing games, it is the fact they are putting in performances – like the one against Burnley on Wednesday – where they are nowhere near the standard of the opposition.

Man Utd ‘not good enough’ and ‘lacking ideas’ – Solskjaer

The problem for Solskjaer is the same things are lacking every week – where is the progress? Although I would add that the mess that the club is in is not all his fault, and the part he has played in it is a relatively small one for me.

Lawro’s prediction: 0-2

Tolu’s prediction: United are in trouble at the moment, especially while Rashford is out. They were our big rivals when I was growing up, but like us they are having a difficult time of things right now. I don’t have any sympathy, though – I am in a group chat with so many United fans who have given us a lot of stick so I am enjoying their demise, definitely. 0-1

Shrewsbury v Liverpool (17:00 GMT)

League One (16th) v Premier League (1st)
Who did they beat?
3R: Bristol City (C) Hr 3R: Everton (PL) H
2R: Mansfield (L2) H
1R: Bradford (L2) Ar

This tie is a great reward for Aaron Pierre’s winner for Shrewsbury in their third-round replay with Bristol City.

Highlights: Shrewsbury Town 1-0 Bristol City

Where the Shrews have been unlucky is that Liverpool defenders Joel Matip and Dejan Lovren are fit, so the Reds will put out a similar team to the one that beat Everton in round three, just with a little bit more experience.

The fact that Jurgen Klopp got past a Premier League side last time despite picking a lot of kids means that no-one can say he is disrespecting the FA Cup if he does the same here and gets beaten.

FA Cup: Liverpool 1-0 Everton highlights

So it has worked out pretty well for him. With Liverpool playing against Wolves on Thursday night and West Ham next Wednesday, he was never going to play his strongest side in this tie anyway.

Lawro’s prediction: 0-2

Tolu’s prediction: I am worried about Liverpool. The one record Arsenal have as ‘Invincibles’ (from 2003-04) is definitely going to be taken way from us. I thought United would beat Liverpool last weekend but with Marcus Rashford injured they did not really have much chance. As far as this tie goes, they are going to win on Sunday as well. 0-4

MONDAY

Bournemouth v Arsenal (20:00 GMT)

Premier League (18th) v Premier League (10th)
Who did they beat?
3R: Luton (C) H 3R: Leeds (C) H

After losing 10 of their previous 12 league games, Bournemouth were back at it to beat Brighton on Tuesday.

I would back striker Callum Wilson to go on a little run of scoring now after he ended his long wait for a goal in that game, and he is not the only Cherries player who will have enjoyed a confidence boost.

Bournemouth needed to show people we are not finished – Howe

As well as Arsenal did to draw with Chelsea after having David Luiz sent off, when I look at them I am just not convinced.

It is early days for Gunners boss Mikel Arteta, of course, but I would love to know what he is thinking now he has got to know his squad a bit.

‘This is what I want to see’ – Arteta on ‘special’ night for Arsenal

Arsenal drew with Bournemouth at the Vitality Stadium on Boxing Day, in Arteta’s first game in charge.

I think he would be happy with the same result if he could get it on Monday, but I am going to go with a Bournemouth win here.

Lawro’s prediction: 2-0

Tolu’s prediction: Bournemouth were back on form on Tuesday night when they beat Brighton, but I am going with Arsenal here of course. Reiss Nelson to score one of them, and Eddie Nketiah too. 1-3

Tolu on whether Arsenal will win the FA Cup this season? Do I fancy it?! Of course – it’s ours. We’ve got the history with it, having won it a record number of times (13) and the ability to cause any team problems.

Arteta against City would be a nice final, wouldn’t it, bearing in mind he has just been working with Pep, and a lot of City’s players. He will have learned a lot from him.

Lawro was speaking to BBC Sport’s Chris Bevan.

How did Lawro do last week?

From the midweek Premier League fixtures, Lawro got five correct results, with one exact score for a total of 80 points.

He beat Ride bassist Steve Queralt, who got four correct results with no exact scores for a total of 40 points.

+/- DENOTE POSITION DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LAWRO’S TABLE AND ACTUAL POSITION
TEAM P W D L PTS +/-
1 Man City 24 23 0 1 69 +1
2 Liverpool 23 20 3 0 63 -1
3 Tottenham 24 17 5 2 56 +3
4 Chelsea 24 17 4 3 55 0
=5 Arsenal 24 11 7 6 40 +5
=5 Man Utd 24 11 7 6 40 0
7 Leicester 24 11 5 8 38 -4
=8 Burnley 24 9 4 11 31 +5
=8 Watford 22 9 4 11 31 +11
=8 West Ham 23 9 4 10 31 +9
11 Everton 24 8 6 10 30 +1
12 Bournemouth 24 9 2 13 29 +6
13 Aston Villa 24 8 4 12 28 +3
14 Wolves 24 8 3 13 27 -7
15 Newcastle 24 7 2 15 23 -1
16 Southampton 24 6 3 15 21 -7
17 Brighton 24 6 2 16 20 -2
18 Sheff Utd 24 5 3 16 18 -10
19 Crystal Palace 24 4 5 15 17 -8
20 Norwich 24 2 7 15 13 0

GUEST LEADERBOARD 2019-20

Score Guest leaderboard
160 Gabriel Luna
140 Arnold Schwarzenegger
100 Adam Peaty
90 Avelino, Helen Housby, Jo Harten, Bobby Seagull, Geraint Thomas
80 Tom Davis, Andy Murray, Stephen Graham
77 Lawro (average after 24 weeks)
70 David Baddiel, Richard Hawley, Kojo, Michael Johnson, Craig Mitch, Alex Scott
60 Sonny Bill Williams, Serge from Kasabian, Stefan Ratchford
50 Chelcee Grimes, Reece Parkinson, Sam Warburton
40 Stephen Fry, Hugh Grant, Neil Jones, Tommy O’Dell, Steve Queralt
30 Matthew McConaughey, Seth Rollins
Total scores after week 24
Lawro 1,840
Guests 1,640



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